2025 Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025, 5:00 PM · Acrisure Stadium
Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh
Predicted scoreLikely
Notre Dame
30.8
Pittsburgh
20.0
Pittsburgh win probability: 25%
Margin (Pittsburgh − Notre Dame): -10.8 (80% range -31 to 9)
Total: 50.7 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Notre Dame 37 – Pittsburgh 15 (margin error 11.2, total error 1.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 21 | 14 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 10 | 0.64% |
| 28 | 14 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.