2025 Week 12 · Nov 13, 2025, 12:00 AM · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium

Northern Illinois @ Massachusetts

Predicted scoreLikely

Northern Illinois

29.8

Massachusetts

20.0

Massachusetts win probability: 27%

Margin (Massachusetts − Northern Illinois): -9.8 (80% range -31 to 10)

Total: 49.9 (80% range 28 to 73)

Actual: Northern Illinois 45 – Massachusetts 3 (margin error 32.2, total error 1.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.