2025 Week 11 · Nov 9, 2025, 2:30 AM · Canvas Stadium
UNLV @ Colorado State
Predicted scoreToss-up
UNLV
30.8
Colorado State
28.8
Colorado State win probability: 45%
Margin (Colorado State − UNLV): -2.1 (80% range -23 to 19)
Total: 59.6 (80% range 35 to 86)
Actual: UNLV 42 – Colorado State 10 (margin error 29.9, total error 7.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.64% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.62% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.