Predicted scoreToss-up
Florida
21.9
Kentucky
23.1
Kentucky win probability: 53%
Margin (Kentucky − Florida): 1.2 (80% range -18 to 21)
Total: 45.0 (80% range 24 to 68)
Actual: Florida 7 – Kentucky 38 (margin error 29.8, total error 0.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.89% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.79% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.78% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.