2025 Week 11 · Nov 9, 2025, 12:00 AM · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium

California @ Louisville

Predicted scoreConfident

California

17.6

Louisville

34.4

Louisville win probability: 86%

Margin (Louisville − California): 16.8 (80% range -3 to 38)

Total: 52.0 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: California 29 – Louisville 26 (margin error 19.8, total error 3.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.