Predicted scoreLean
Duke
34.6
UConn
28.4
UConn win probability: 36%
Margin (UConn − Duke): -6.2 (80% range -28 to 14)
Total: 63.0 (80% range 38 to 90)
Actual: Duke 34 – UConn 37 (margin error 9.2, total error 8.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.56% |
| 38 | 31 | 0.56% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.53% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.