2025 Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025, 8:00 PM · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

Florida International @ Middle Tennessee

Predicted scoreToss-up

Florida International

25.6

Middle Tennessee

26.8

Middle Tennessee win probability: 53%

Margin (Middle Tennessee − Florida International): 1.2 (80% range -19 to 21)

Total: 52.4 (80% range 30 to 77)

Actual: Florida International 56 – Middle Tennessee 30 (margin error 27.2, total error 33.6)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.