2025 Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025, 8:00 PM · Sun Bowl
Jacksonville State @ UTEP
Predicted scoreLean
Jacksonville State
26.2
UTEP
19.9
UTEP win probability: 34%
Margin (UTEP − Jacksonville State): -6.3 (80% range -26 to 14)
Total: 46.1 (80% range 24 to 69)
Actual: Jacksonville State 30 – UTEP 27 (margin error 3.3, total error 10.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.79% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.74% |
| 21 | 14 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.