2025 Week 11 · Nov 7, 2025, 12:30 AM · Raymond James Stadium

UTSA @ South Florida

Predicted scoreLean

UTSA

23.9

South Florida

29.5

South Florida win probability: 63%

Margin (South Florida − UTSA): 5.5 (80% range -14 to 27)

Total: 53.4 (80% range 31 to 78)

Actual: UTSA 23 – South Florida 55 (margin error 26.5, total error 24.6)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.