Predicted scoreToss-up
Kentucky
20.1
Auburn
23.6
Auburn win probability: 59%
Margin (Auburn − Kentucky): 3.5 (80% range -15 to 22)
Total: 43.8 (80% range 23 to 66)
Actual: Kentucky 10 – Auburn 3 (margin error 10.5, total error 30.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.93% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.88% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.79% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.74% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.