Predicted scoreLikely
Purdue
19.7
Michigan
32.5
Michigan win probability: 79%
Margin (Michigan − Purdue): 12.8 (80% range -7 to 33)
Total: 52.2 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Purdue 16 – Michigan 21 (margin error 7.8, total error 15.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.