2025 Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025, 7:45 PM · California Memorial Stadium

Virginia @ California

Predicted scoreLean

Virginia

29.6

California

24.7

California win probability: 38%

Margin (California − Virginia): -4.9 (80% range -25 to 15)

Total: 54.3 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Virginia 31 – California 21 (margin error 5.1, total error 2.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.