2025 Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025, 7:30 PM · Albertsons Stadium
Fresno State @ Boise State
Predicted scoreLikely
Fresno State
18.7
Boise State
30.3
Boise State win probability: 77%
Margin (Boise State − Fresno State): 11.6 (80% range -7 to 31)
Total: 48.9 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: Fresno State 30 – Boise State 7 (margin error 34.6, total error 11.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 24 | 0.88% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 7 | 21 | 0.71% |
| 10 | 21 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.