2025 Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025, 5:00 PM · Jack Trice Stadium

Arizona State @ Iowa State

Predicted scoreLean

Arizona State

24.9

Iowa State

29.7

Iowa State win probability: 61%

Margin (Iowa State − Arizona State): 4.8 (80% range -15 to 25)

Total: 54.5 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Arizona State 24 – Iowa State 19 (margin error 9.8, total error 11.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.