Predicted scoreLikely
UAB
24.3
UConn
34.6
UConn win probability: 73%
Margin (UConn − UAB): 10.2 (80% range -11 to 31)
Total: 58.9 (80% range 34 to 85)
Actual: UAB 19 – UConn 38 (margin error 8.8, total error 1.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.