Predicted scoreLean
Miami
30.8
SMU
24.5
SMU win probability: 35%
Margin (SMU − Miami): -6.4 (80% range -28 to 14)
Total: 55.3 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Miami 20 – SMU 26 (margin error 12.4, total error 9.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.