Predicted scoreToss-up
UCF
29.2
Baylor
30.9
Baylor win probability: 54%
Margin (Baylor − UCF): 1.7 (80% range -20 to 23)
Total: 60.0 (80% range 35 to 86)
Actual: UCF 3 – Baylor 30 (margin error 25.3, total error 27.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.56% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.55% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.