2025 Week 10 · Oct 29, 2025, 11:30 PM · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

Jacksonville State @ Middle Tennessee

Predicted scoreLikely

Jacksonville State

33.7

Middle Tennessee

23.8

Middle Tennessee win probability: 27%

Margin (Middle Tennessee − Jacksonville State): -9.9 (80% range -31 to 11)

Total: 57.6 (80% range 34 to 83)

Actual: Jacksonville State 24 – Middle Tennessee 21 (margin error 6.9, total error 12.6)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.