2025 Week 9 · Oct 26, 2025, 12:00 AM · Mountain America Stadium

Houston @ Arizona State

Predicted scoreLean

Houston

23.7

Arizona State

30.3

Arizona State win probability: 66%

Margin (Arizona State − Houston): 6.6 (80% range -14 to 27)

Total: 54.0 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Houston 24 – Arizona State 16 (margin error 14.6, total error 14.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.