2025 Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025, 7:30 PM · Valley Children's Stadium

San Diego State @ Fresno State

Predicted scoreToss-up

San Diego State

24.2

Fresno State

23.3

Fresno State win probability: 48%

Margin (Fresno State − San Diego State): -0.8 (80% range -21 to 19)

Total: 47.5 (80% range 26 to 71)

Actual: San Diego State 23 – Fresno State 0 (margin error 22.2, total error 24.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.