2025 Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025, 7:00 PM · University Stadium (NM)

Utah State @ New Mexico

Predicted scoreToss-up

Utah State

29.7

New Mexico

32.6

New Mexico win probability: 57%

Margin (New Mexico − Utah State): 2.8 (80% range -18 to 24)

Total: 62.3 (80% range 37 to 90)

Actual: Utah State 14 – New Mexico 33 (margin error 16.2, total error 15.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.