2025 Week 9 · Oct 23, 2025, 11:30 PM · Center Parc Stadium

South Alabama @ Georgia State

Predicted scoreLean

South Alabama

31.3

Georgia State

24.4

Georgia State win probability: 33%

Margin (Georgia State − South Alabama): -6.9 (80% range -28 to 14)

Total: 55.6 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: South Alabama 38 – Georgia State 31 (margin error 0.1, total error 13.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.