2025 Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025, 11:00 PM · Allen E. Paulson Stadium

Georgia State @ Georgia Southern

Predicted scoreLean

Georgia State

26.3

Georgia Southern

31.3

Georgia Southern win probability: 62%

Margin (Georgia Southern − Georgia State): 4.9 (80% range -15 to 25)

Total: 57.6 (80% range 34 to 83)

Actual: Georgia State 24 – Georgia Southern 41 (margin error 12.1, total error 7.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.