Predicted scoreLean
Texas
27.3
Kentucky
19.8
Kentucky win probability: 32%
Margin (Kentucky − Texas): -7.5 (80% range -28 to 11)
Total: 47.1 (80% range 26 to 70)
Actual: Texas 16 – Kentucky 13 (margin error 4.5, total error 18.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.95% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 10 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.