Predicted scoreLikely
Memphis
34.4
UAB
21.9
UAB win probability: 22%
Margin (UAB − Memphis): -12.5 (80% range -34 to 8)
Total: 56.2 (80% range 33 to 81)
Actual: Memphis 24 – UAB 31 (margin error 19.5, total error 1.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.63% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.