2025 Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025, 7:30 PM · DATCU Stadium
UTSA @ North Texas
Predicted scoreLean
UTSA
26.6
North Texas
32.4
North Texas win probability: 64%
Margin (North Texas − UTSA): 5.8 (80% range -15 to 27)
Total: 59.0 (80% range 35 to 85)
Actual: UTSA 17 – North Texas 55 (margin error 32.2, total error 13.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.58% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.55% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.