2025 Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025, 2:30 AM · California Memorial Stadium

North Carolina @ California

Predicted scoreLean

North Carolina

24.0

California

29.1

California win probability: 63%

Margin (California − North Carolina): 5.1 (80% range -15 to 25)

Total: 53.1 (80% range 31 to 77)

Actual: North Carolina 18 – California 21 (margin error 2.1, total error 14.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.