2025 Week 8 · Oct 17, 2025, 11:00 PM · Hard Rock Stadium
Louisville @ Miami
Predicted scoreLikely
Louisville
18.7
Miami
34.2
Miami win probability: 84%
Margin (Miami − Louisville): 15.4 (80% range -4 to 35)
Total: 52.9 (80% range 31 to 77)
Actual: Louisville 24 – Miami 21 (margin error 18.4, total error 7.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.83% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 14 | 38 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.