2025 Week 8 · Oct 15, 2025, 11:00 PM · BBVA Compass Stadium (neutral site)

UTEP @ Sam Houston

Predicted scoreToss-up

UTEP

23.8

Sam Houston

20.1

Sam Houston win probability: 40%

Margin (Sam Houston − UTEP): -3.7 (80% range -24 to 15)

Total: 44.0 (80% range 23 to 66)

Actual: UTEP 35 – Sam Houston 17 (margin error 14.3, total error 8.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.