Predicted scoreLikely
Arkansas
23.8
Tennessee
34.8
Tennessee win probability: 75%
Margin (Tennessee − Arkansas): 11.0 (80% range -10 to 32)
Total: 58.6 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: Arkansas 31 – Tennessee 34 (margin error 8.0, total error 6.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.59% |
| 21 | 38 | 0.55% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.