2025 Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025, 7:30 PM · Bill Snyder Family Stadium

TCU @ Kansas State

Predicted scoreToss-up

TCU

27.1

Kansas State

24.8

Kansas State win probability: 44%

Margin (Kansas State − TCU): -2.3 (80% range -22 to 18)

Total: 51.9 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: TCU 28 – Kansas State 41 (margin error 15.3, total error 17.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.