Predicted scoreToss-up
Indiana
29.5
Oregon
27.6
Oregon win probability: 45%
Margin (Oregon − Indiana): -1.8 (80% range -22 to 19)
Total: 57.1 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: Indiana 30 – Oregon 20 (margin error 8.2, total error 7.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.58% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.56% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.