2024 Week 2 · Sep 8, 2024, 2:15 AM · Aggie Memorial Stadium

Liberty @ New Mexico State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Liberty

29.7

New Mexico State

26.9

New Mexico State win probability: 43%

Margin (New Mexico State − Liberty): -2.8 (80% range -24 to 18)

Total: 56.7 (80% range 33 to 82)

Actual: Liberty 30 – New Mexico State 24 (margin error 3.2, total error 2.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.