2025 Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025, 4:00 PM · Nippert Stadium
UCF @ Cincinnati
Predicted scoreToss-up
UCF
29.0
Cincinnati
30.7
Cincinnati win probability: 54%
Margin (Cincinnati − UCF): 1.7 (80% range -20 to 23)
Total: 59.6 (80% range 35 to 86)
Actual: UCF 11 – Cincinnati 20 (margin error 7.3, total error 28.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.57% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.54% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.