2025 Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025, 4:00 PM · Doak Campbell Stadium

Pittsburgh @ Florida State

Predicted scoreLean

Pittsburgh

22.0

Florida State

29.0

Florida State win probability: 67%

Margin (Florida State − Pittsburgh): 7.0 (80% range -13 to 28)

Total: 51.0 (80% range 28 to 75)

Actual: Pittsburgh 34 – Florida State 31 (margin error 10.0, total error 14.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.