Predicted scoreLean
Alabama
28.2
Missouri
23.9
Missouri win probability: 39%
Margin (Missouri − Alabama): -4.3 (80% range -25 to 17)
Total: 52.1 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Alabama 27 – Missouri 24 (margin error 1.3, total error 1.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 14 | 0.71% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.