2025 Week 6 · Oct 5, 2025, 2:30 AM · California Memorial Stadium

Duke @ California

Predicted scoreLean

Duke

31.9

California

25.8

California win probability: 36%

Margin (California − Duke): -6.1 (80% range -27 to 14)

Total: 57.6 (80% range 34 to 83)

Actual: Duke 45 – California 21 (margin error 17.9, total error 8.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.