2025 Week 6 · Oct 5, 2025, 12:00 AM · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium

Tulsa @ Memphis

Predicted scoreConfident

Tulsa

18.4

Memphis

39.1

Memphis win probability: 90%

Margin (Memphis − Tulsa): 20.7 (80% range 0 to 42)

Total: 57.6 (80% range 34 to 83)

Actual: Tulsa 7 – Memphis 45 (margin error 17.3, total error 5.6)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.