2025 Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025, 11:30 PM · Doak Campbell Stadium
Miami @ Florida State
Predicted scoreLikely
Miami
32.9
Florida State
21.5
Florida State win probability: 24%
Margin (Florida State − Miami): -11.4 (80% range -32 to 9)
Total: 54.4 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Miami 28 – Florida State 22 (margin error 5.4, total error 4.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.