Predicted scoreToss-up
Kansas
31.8
UCF
31.6
UCF win probability: 50%
Margin (UCF − Kansas): -0.2 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 63.4 (80% range 38 to 90)
Actual: Kansas 27 – UCF 20 (margin error 6.8, total error 16.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.58% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.56% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.56% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.55% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.52% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.