2025 Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025, 7:30 PM · Center Parc Stadium

James Madison @ Georgia State

Predicted scoreLikely

James Madison

33.3

Georgia State

20.5

Georgia State win probability: 21%

Margin (Georgia State − James Madison): -12.8 (80% range -34 to 7)

Total: 53.8 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: James Madison 14 – Georgia State 7 (margin error 5.8, total error 32.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.