2025 Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025, 7:30 PM · Pratt & Whitney Stadium

Florida International @ UConn

Predicted scoreLikely

Florida International

20.5

UConn

31.5

UConn win probability: 76%

Margin (UConn − Florida International): 11.0 (80% range -10 to 31)

Total: 52.0 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Florida International 10 – UConn 51 (margin error 30.0, total error 9.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.