2025 Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025, 4:00 PM · Nippert Stadium
Iowa State @ Cincinnati
Predicted scoreLean
Iowa State
31.7
Cincinnati
25.0
Cincinnati win probability: 34%
Margin (Cincinnati − Iowa State): -6.6 (80% range -28 to 14)
Total: 56.7 (80% range 34 to 82)
Actual: Iowa State 30 – Cincinnati 38 (margin error 14.6, total error 11.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.