Predicted scoreToss-up
Marshall
25.5
Louisiana
28.5
Louisiana win probability: 58%
Margin (Louisiana − Marshall): 3.1 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 54.0 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Marshall 51 – Louisiana 54 (margin error 0.1, total error 51.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.