2025 Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025, 11:00 PM · Jack Trice Stadium
Arizona @ Iowa State
Predicted scoreLean
Arizona
24.0
Iowa State
29.0
Iowa State win probability: 62%
Margin (Iowa State − Arizona): 5.0 (80% range -15 to 25)
Total: 53.0 (80% range 30 to 77)
Actual: Arizona 14 – Iowa State 39 (margin error 20.0, total error 0.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.84% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.62% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.