2025 Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025, 11:00 PM · FAU Stadium
Memphis @ Florida Atlantic
Predicted scoreLikely
Memphis
31.4
Florida Atlantic
22.9
Florida Atlantic win probability: 30%
Margin (Florida Atlantic − Memphis): -8.6 (80% range -29 to 11)
Total: 54.3 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Memphis 55 – Florida Atlantic 26 (margin error 20.4, total error 26.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.