Predicted scoreLikely
Indiana
32.2
Iowa
18.2
Iowa win probability: 19%
Margin (Iowa − Indiana): -14.0 (80% range -35 to 7)
Total: 50.5 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Indiana 20 – Iowa 15 (margin error 9.0, total error 15.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.82% |
| 24 | 10 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.67% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.