2025 Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025, 4:00 PM · Acrisure Stadium
Louisville @ Pittsburgh
Predicted scoreLean
Louisville
28.9
Pittsburgh
21.6
Pittsburgh win probability: 32%
Margin (Pittsburgh − Louisville): -7.3 (80% range -28 to 13)
Total: 50.5 (80% range 28 to 74)
Actual: Louisville 34 – Pittsburgh 27 (margin error 0.3, total error 10.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.67% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.