2025 Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025, 4:00 PM · Razorback Stadium
Notre Dame @ Arkansas
Predicted scoreLean
Notre Dame
31.5
Arkansas
26.6
Arkansas win probability: 38%
Margin (Arkansas − Notre Dame): -4.9 (80% range -25 to 16)
Total: 58.0 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: Notre Dame 56 – Arkansas 13 (margin error 38.1, total error 11.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 38 | 24 | 0.59% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.57% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.55% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.