2025 Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025, 4:00 PM · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)

USC @ Illinois

Predicted scoreToss-up

USC

31.7

Illinois

28.7

Illinois win probability: 43%

Margin (Illinois − USC): -3.0 (80% range -24 to 18)

Total: 60.5 (80% range 36 to 86)

Actual: USC 32 – Illinois 34 (margin error 5.0, total error 5.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.